As CEO of an HCM services giant with 77 years of data at its disposal, Maria Black has an important question to ask:
There’s a lot of commentary right now about what AI means for HR, for the workforce and for the future of work. But is this the right discussion?
Given the wording of the question, it will come as no surprise that Black’s answer is an emphatic no! The importance of human intelligence in the loop is what’s at the heart of this rebuttal. She explains:
I see it differently. I believe, and our data shows, that the world of work is evolving in ways that are beautifully and fundamentally human, [and] AI is taking on the routine of what is left. The judgment calls, the complex decisions, the moment when a real expert needs to guide a business through something unprecedented – those moments are becoming more frequent and the value of human expertise is compounding.
That being so, Black would re-frame the conversation to be about how society addresses what she calls “this defining moment for work”. Every organization is wrestling with the same HR-centric issue at present, she argues:
How do we address this defining moment for work navigating compliance, reimagining roles and deploying AI without losing the accuracy and trust that payroll and HR require?
Proper topic
While there’s a lot of mainstream media attention focused on the supposed destructive nature of AI on the jobs landscape – hardly without some merit – the issue is more complex than the clickbait alarmism allows for, she suggests:
While some job displacement can occur during times of transition, our data shows that AI is not eliminating jobs at scale. Instead, it’s re-shaping how work gets done, what roles look like and how teams are organized. At the same time, employers are navigating an accelerating wave of new regulations and compliance requirements as they increase their use of AI to enable and support human talent. This is a historic shift that is driving a re-design of the global workforce.
To drill down into this data she cites, ADP’s research team has partnered with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, examined a data set of 5 million job postings linked to 9 million workers in ADP payroll data, breaking out a sample group of 7,000 IT workers across 2019 thru 2025. In total, this represented more than 20,000 worker-year observations drawn from more than 600 employers.
The goal of the study was to understand better now AI changes jobs at a task level by making certain tasks less valuable due to automation, while others become more valuable by dint of the need for human involvement. Dividing the data into pre-AI – 2019-22 – and post-AI – 2023-25 – a number of tasks did indeed declined in perceived value, namely:
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Diagnosing system or equipment problems.
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Developing models of systems, processes, or products.
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Documenting technical designs, procedures, and activities.
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Setting up computer systems, networks, and other information systems.
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Explaining technical details of products and services.
According to Andrew Wang, Research Scientist at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, the research provides a new perspective on AI’s impact on jobs:
Studies of the effect of AI on jobs and the future of work have focused mainly on occupations, because government data on employment and wages are available only at the occupation level. But AI’s biggest and most immediate effect will be on tasks, not entire occupations. Jobs are bundles of tasks and AI is changing the composition of those bundles.
Data asset
Black picks up the narrative, arguing that ADP’s payroll data for millions of workers means that it can map how AI is actually reshaping work in the near real time:
We can break down work into granular tasks that describe what people do, not just job titles and measure how the amount a worker is paid to do a specific task changes over time. This is a level of visibility no other HCM company can match. By understanding the changes in the wage premium of specific tasks, we can see how the economic value of certain tasks evolve over time, likely influenced by AI and automation.
Additionally, we cannot only uncover what tasks are valuable, but what work is actually growing or shrinking in practice. Why is this important? This powerful workforce intelligence can help our clients navigate the workforce re-design and re-skilling brought by this shift.
On the early results outlined above, she comments:
An initial look at IT workers shows that tasks like design, development and analysis command higher wage premiums than tasks like testing, documentation, monitoring and technical support. This suggests employers value and will pay for the tasks that require deeper thinking and human judgment. As I said earlier, with this research continues to confirm and what our client data shows is that the workforce is evolving, not shrinking. It is being re-defined at the task level.
And for ADP clients, that means that the stakes of getting HCM right have never been higher, she warns:
AI is accelerating how businesses build, manage and deploy their workforce. As organizations pair AI capability with expert human judgment, they need HCM partners with operational capabilities, process expertise and technology to execute it, payroll updates, compliance navigation, regulatory filings, people infrastructure across every jurisdiction, every workforce model in every business size
She cites the example of an anonymized large global auto manufacturer undergoing a large-scale AI-driven workforce transformation aimed at optimizing labor allocation with the goal of creating a more efficient global operating model;
As part of this initiative, the organization is introducing new workforce structures, evolving compensation framework and navigating complex regulatory requirements, including country-specific labor laws, payroll regulations, statutory filings and reporting requirements across 13 countries.
Meanwhile the other end of the spectrum, she points to a small business in Las Vegas, namely a dentist office which was experiencing high turnover after hiring quickly to keep up with rapid growth:
Our experts helped them re-vamp their recruitment process with intentional hiring strategies, structured behavioral interviews and improved onboarding programs. This strategic shift ended up reducing turnover by 40% in just a year
Bottom line – rumors of the death of HCM at the hands of AI are greatly exaggerated. Black says:
The fact is, HCM remains alive and well. The need to pay people accurately, treat workers fairly, stay compliant and navigate change has never been greater. The organization that get this right, that invests in the right partners, the right infrastructure, the right expertise are the ones that will come out of this moment stronger.
My take
Another useful validation of the importance of human intelligence in an age when the pursuit of automation for cost purposes seems to be an unhealthy Holy Grail for all too many organizations.
